After an introduction by Patrick
Doherty, the Deputy Director of the American Strategy Program
and Director of the U.S.-Cuba 21st Century Policy Initiative at New
America, Anne Louise Bardach discussed the her recently published book Without Fidel: A Death Foretold in Miami,
Havana, and Washington. Bardach
described how an article primarily focused on the Cubana Airlines attack and
exiled Cuban militants, including Luis Posada Carriles, transformed into a
three-part book covering Fidel Castro's long death, the Castro fascination, and
Raul Castro's new reign. The book
contains inside accounts and stories collected by Bardach in her 20 years of
covering Cuba and the United States, in what she described as the book
for which she, "kissed the visas to Cuba goodbye forever."
Bardach then analyzed the most recent purge in March of the
top figures in the Cuban government, concluding that the purge was a result of
Raul Castro wanting his own people in positions of power. According to Bardach, the Cuban government
today has been militarized and is now running as "Raul's Army." While Raul has placed individuals loyal to
him in top government positions, he is still absolutely loyal to his ailing
brother, Fidel Castro, who retains the ultimate veto power. Bardach argued that this relationship and the
primacy of stability and security for the Castro Family, the military, and
government institutions direct the incremental pace of reform that has begun
under Raul. However, Bardach also
argues, that while these reforms, such as allowing Cubans access to computers
and tourist facilities, may seem cosmetic, in reality, they are important steps
by Raul Castro towards addressing complaints of the Cuban people.
The rest of the event addressed questions about particulars
in the trial of Luis Posada Carriles, the Cuban exile allegedly involved with
the Cubana Airplane taken down in 1976 and the Cuban hotel bombings in 1997,
which Bardach has covered extensively with colleagues from the New York Times. While Bardach could only make limited
comments about the case, she passionately called for an investigation into who
closed the Posada case in 2003 and how the evidence was handled and destroyed
at that time.
In response to questions on the path to normalization in
US-Cuba relations, Bardach answered that the Obama Administration has moved
slowly and judiciously. She stated that
by the end of the Obama's term, we can expect relations to return to what they
were during the Clinton
era. There are still challenges to
normalized relations, largely because the embargo is codified in US law. However, Bardach concluded that in 50 years
the showdown between the largest Superpower in the world and the Caribbean
island will end with the U.S.
gaining little to nothing, at best, with an improved relationship with Cuba in the
future.